Down the Coast

Although the Twins depart Seattle with a lost series, they easily could have collected two wins. The numbers from Friday and Saturday are frighteningly similar. On Friday, an effective Francisco Liriano gave up one earned run over six innings, recording a WPA of 0.25. On Saturday, Nick Blackburn logged an even better start, giving up one earned run over seven innings, earning a WPA of 0.30. Offensively, the Twins had eight hits and left ten runners on base on Friday; on Saturday, they collected nine hits and left nine runners on base. The team batted better with runners in scoring position on Saturday than on Friday. Each of these stats suggest that the Twins should have won the second of the two games when in fact the opposite occurred. The key difference was a timely hit by Matt Tolbert / error by Balentin in extras on Friday and an untimely earned run given up by Sean Henn in the eighth on Saturday. While it's unfortunate that Minnesota couldn't take the first two, it isn't unlucky; they could just as easily have been swept.

Sunday was a different story. Kevin Slowey turned in his second shortest start and gave up his second most earned runs and hits. He allowed three home runs, a season high, and tied his highs and lows for walks and strikeouts, respectively. Neither team was particularly effective; the Mariners and Twins combined to leave 25 runners one base. In the end, the three solo home runs given up by Slowey decided the game.

The Twins can hope that their clutch batting will improve against the A's, who sit at the bottom of the AL West. The 10, 9 and 12 men left on base this weekend were extreme numbers; the Twins have only reached double digits in the category in eight other games (including four in a row against the Yankees). Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden have struggled with RISP this season, allowing opponent OPS averages of .845 and .803 respectively. However, the Twins posted just three runs against Seattle lefties Washburn and Bedard; Minnesota will face Josh Outman, Anderson, and Braden - all southpaws - in the next three games. Hopefully the Twins' lineup will learn to adjust.

Update:

Congratulations to Randy Johnson on his 300th career win.
There may never be another pitcher that accomplishes the feat.

He always looked really, really scary to me as a kid.
The first time I saw his picture, I quit playing baseball.

One Third Behind Us

Brendan Harris has quietly put together a nine-game hit streak and has been relatively solid in the field. That doesn't make him a good fit at shortstop. A quick comparison shows that Harris and Nick Punto have very similar (negative) win-probability added numbers, -0.33 and -0.37, respectively. Neither has ever statistically "helped" their teams - Punto has never had a figure above 0.00, while Harris only once went positive, and only by 0.05 in 2006 - but we're looking for the lesser of two really-bads. Defensively, Harris is playing slightly better than Punto at short this year, but the numbers suggest that it's been a fluke thus far. Prior to this season, Harris had never had a positive Ultimate Zone Rating* (UZR), while Punto's has increased steadily every year, topping off at 7.5 in 2008. Punto is clearly a better defensive option, and many times SportsCenter's Top Ten proves this even better than statistics. Offensively, neither has been a powerhouse, but Harris has batted a measly .247 (.642 OPS) when playing at short, while Punto has batted .281 (.694 OPS). I'd give my left... something... to have Jason Bartlett back, but Punto is what we're left with. Let's root for him in this Nick vs. groin battle.

*Ultimate Zone Rating is the number of runs above or below average a fielder is in range runs, double-play runs, and error runs (and outfield-arm runs, if applicable) combined.

Speaking of bad hitting, the Twins have gone from batting .305 (.826 OPS) with RISP in '08 to .266 (.766 OPS) in '09, thanks largely to everyone whose last name isn't Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau. The two have combined for more RBI (85) than positions 6-9 in the lineup, and Mauer has only started 29 games. The bottom half of the order illustrated the disparity quite well today.

Delmon Young finally got a day off, one he clearly needed. It's unlikely that his performance will improve in the near future; in 34 plate appearances against Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, and Erik Bedard - the probable starters for the weekend series against Seattle - Young has gotten just 4 hits. Michael Cuddyer has fared little better against Hernandez and Washburn (4 for 32), so even if he's healthy, holding him off until Sunday wouldn't be a bad idea (we'll see what kind of report the Twins release on his status). Jason Kubel broke out of his cold streak today while playing defense; he should be a good fit in a continuation of today's outfield lineup until Sunday.

Among American League opponents, only the Angels have batted worse than the Mariners against Twins pitching this year (based on OPS). Despite this, of the Twins upcoming pitchers, only Nick Blackburn has produced a start against Seattle this year that produced a positive WPA, when he allowed no runs over seven innings in early May (unfortunately, the Twins went on to lose that game). In the four other starts, Francisco Liriano, Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey combined to give up 18 earned runs in just 23 innings. However, Blackburn and Slowey have improved; with luck, the Twins could get two out of three.

On a barely-related note, does anyone else think Kevin Slowey looks a lot like Cameron Frye (actor Alan Ruck) from Ferris Bueller's Day Off?

Aquarium Radio is Here!

In this first installment, I talk with John, creator of Twins MVB. We discuss Joe Mauer's hot streak, the crowded outfield and the constantly changing infield, the upcoming road trip, and more. Share your thoughts and ENJOY!

Cliché Blog Title 101:

Home Sweet Home!

The top of the Twins' lineup is now weighted heavily with lefties, but this season the back-to-back duo of Mauer and Morneau should be far less of a concern. Prior to tonight, Joe Mauer was batting .493 (with an astounding 1.526 OPS) against right-handed pitchers (vs. .250 and .953 OPS against lefties). Justin Morneau compliments him by performing best when facing southpaws, batting .444 with a 1.265 OPS (vs. .282 and .949 OPS against righties). Mauer lessened the disparity between his splits by going three-for-three with a walk against left-handed Huff. Morneau took two hits from the Cleveland starter, including an impressive double to left when facing the extreme shift presented by the Indians, with the third baseman positioned on the opposite side of second. Coupled with Denard Span's very decent on-base percentage, the two power hitters should continue to find success batting in the second and third position, a top-of-the-lineup that Twins bloggers have been calling for for years.

The same writers have also pulled for 8th inning appearances by Joe Nathan in situations like tonight's, and this evening Gardenhire surprised fans everywhere by giving it to them. Joe has for years been the best arm in the bullpen, and using him for four to five outs instead of the "textbook" three is both a financially and strategically sound late-inning tactic. Over his career, Nathan's opponents' numbers have been very similar in both the 8th (.172 BA, .522 OPS) and the 9th (.187 BA, .525 OPS) innings, and tonight he demonstrated that he can be quite effective when playing in both back-to-back, giving up just one hit in his 1 1/3 innings to end a potential rally. In nearly any situation he's far less of a liability than his fellow relievers; hopefully common sense will continue to prevail and Gardy will more often make use of the Pohlad family money by bringing in the bullpen prize before games are lost.

Jason Kubel is now in the midst of an 0-for-16 slump. Far more troubling are Delmon Young's difficulties at the plate; he's collected just three hits - while striking out 17 times - in his 31 plate appearances since his return from family-related leave. He's clearly struggling mentally, but forcing him into the outfield does not appear to be a viable solution. Kubel should take his spot in left until Cuddyer returns; Young should split time at DH while working with Vavra or take some time at AAA. I feel for the guy, but he's lost his intensity. It's an intensity that is at times maladaptive, but right now it's bringing down the team and it's difficult to watch.

The Indians have given up by far the most walks in the league, while the Twins have given up by far the fewest. However, Cleveland is at the bottom of the division, so it comes as no surprise that their staff has also maintained both the highest ERA and the highest WHIP. In contrast, does the Twins' low number of walks correlate with a successful pitching staff? Minnesota only ranks three spots better than the Indians in team ERA and one spot better when the average is adjusted by ballpark. Within the team, however, BBs may be a valid predictor. Prior to tonight Kevin Slowey, who has recently been the most effective starter, had given up just 0.7 walks per nine innings. Scott Baker gives up 1.7, followed by Perkins at 2.3, Blackburn at 2.6, and Liriano at 4.3. With the exception of Black, these rankings more or less rank the quality of the Twins' starters thus far. It appears the Rick Anderson's long-held philosophy of "throw strikes" continues to be an effective one.

I should credit Aaaron Gleeman with making players' names bold. It looks nice.

Gameday Audio delays the TRN broadcast long enough to allow me to select John and Dazzle over Dick and Bert while watching on FSN. Listening tonight, I heard some valuable money-saving tips from FeedThePig.org. I decided to visit the site, and found one of the most disturbing video introductions since... well, just take a look.

Tomorrow night Anthony Swarzak (1-1) faces Cliff Lee (2-6). Here's Anthony:


And here's what Anthony see's every morning in the mirror, brought to you exclusively by TwinsAquarium.com:

That's the real deal. Get to know 'em.

Road Warriors

It looks as though the Twins bench will continue to change in the coming days, thanks to nagging injuries and inconsistent performances. But despite his recent struggles, Tolbert still deserves a spot on the roster, and I'm glad to see he's kept it. His poor overall batting numbers (.265 OBP, .522 OPS) hurt his case, but he's batting much better in clutch situations than his potential replacements at second base. His .788 OPS with runners in scoring position dwarfs that of Casilla (.409), Punto (.591), and Harris (.693), and his 5.38 Range Factor / 9 (consistent with his 5.40 in 2008) at second trumps Harris's 4.54 (4.42 in 2008) and is comparable to Casilla's 5.74 (which may be considered an outlier when compared with his 2008 4.78 and career 4.97). Simply put, he's good when he needs to be. Plus, he's versatile, fast, and a switch hitter. Hopefully continued time in the field will bring him back to last year's form at the plate.

Weekend Notes:

• The Twins stuck out 15 times on Saturday, the most since 2000.

• Garza is still a talented head case.

• Jason Kubel has struck out in half of his plate appearances since the win against the Sox on Wednesday.
  

• Justin Morneau has 47 RBI (3rd in AL) and 13 home runs (4th in AL) and it's not even June. At this point (after 52 games) in 2006 - his MVP season - he had 38 RBI and 11 home runs. He was batting just .237 (.751 OPS), however, and brought his average up to .321 (.934 OPS) by the end of the season. All of these numbers suggest he's playing T-Ball this year.

Finally, here are the GameDay images from the HRs given up by Baker and Liriano in their losses. Blue balls are home runs and painful.

Baker:










Liriano:










And here's my "Guide to Not Giving Up Home Runs":
Step:1 Don't leave the ball middle-in.


The Twins have an off-day tomorrow before heading back to the Dome.

Dear readers,

After a busy year of working, traveling, and graduating, I've decided to start writing again. The Aquarium has returned - 51 weeks after it left - and it's been cleaned up. Why? It was a drag before. I used to spend hours analyzing mind-numbing statistical trends. Here's an example:

Nick Punto's on-base plus slugging percentage against lefties has dropped ten points in home games this month.

Yawn. Not only is that more boring than a rain gauge, its not even statistically significant. It will turn your brain into oatmeal. If you want raw numbers, you've got MLB.com or Baseball-Reference.com.

I don't really want this to be some cheesy run-of-the-mill fan blog either. Most of those will share things like this with you:

Kelly Theiser of TwinsBaseball.com reports: "Twins outfielder Denard Span was scratched from the lineup for Sunday night's game against the Brewers due to feeling light-headed and lethargic." This is terrible! We need him in the outfield tonight. He is so fast.

That story is real. That analysis isn't, but basement-dwellers share that kind of insight. And it's the worst. Remember that cattle gun from No Country for Old Men?

People shouldn't waste time re-wording Associated Press news briefs, and fans shouldn't spend their mornings cycling through bookmarks to read them. What is it that they say, "Those who can, do; those who can't write about it"? Well, I can't play baseball, but I'm not going to pretend that I can by making friends with a calculator. I just love the Twins. So, my goal for this site will be to share my opinion. There will still be some numbers, but I want this to be interesting. You don't have to agree with everything I say. Hopefully when you don't, you will put in your 2¢.

There's a new post below for you to sink your teeth into. The site may be changing a bit in the next couple of weeks, and this time around I'll be experimenting with podcasts and guest writers. So check out the "Radio" link on the right, subscribe to the RSS to stay fed, and enjoy.

Sincerely,

Eric
The Aquarium