Saturday, June 7, 2008
And...
...if you get bored during the rain delay, the Twins blow it, or you simply have two TV's, David Coulon, our 17th pick in Thursday's draft is playing on ESPN. He is a left-handed starting pitcher for Arizona. The Wildcats are playing the Hurricanes, who include Carlos Gutierrez, our 2nd pick, a right-handed closer, and Adam Severino, our 28th pick, a left-fielder. He played in yesterday's game but did not start tonight. Severino might seem like a pretty low pick (786), but it's a long draft; the Twins selected 24 players after him.
Lord, Beer Me Strength
Why did Juan Rincon play last night? At US Cellular field, he has given up 21 runs in 31 innings. Batters hit .297 (.817 OPS) off of him there. With runners on second and third, batters have hit .387 (1.351 OPS) off of him over his career, his statistically worse line. And, he entered to face someone with 15 home runs and 50 RBIs.
Now of course, I can't expect Gardy to have someone waiting on Baseball-Reference to cross-check every one of his decisions, and I shouldn't expect him to abandon all of his managerial intuition in favor of statistics. So I won't even include that his worst ERA comes after two days of rest, like last night, or that batters hit .324 (.843 OPS) when he enters in the 5th inning, like last night. I won't even mention that batters hit his first pitch at a .314 pace (.786 OPS), and that Blackburn had been getting his first jacked all night, so he shouldn't make it hittable. But together, all of this lead to his first offering to Quentin being knocked out of the park to add three more runs, and I think that even a casual fan could have seen it coming.
Rincon was already struggling, and it was obvious. Everyone would like to see him work out of it. But bringing him in last night was not the way to do it. The pitcher to replace Blackburn should be one that can "stop the bleeding". Bringing in Guerrier, Crain, Bass or Boof might have provided the stitches. Bringing in Rincon just widened the wound.
I have been complaining for most of the season that Mauer should be batting second in the order. But Casilla has held down the second spot for a couple of weeks now, and is looking very good there. Mauer hardly struggled with other players batting in front of him, but he has been especially effective when following the second baseman. In the past sixteen games in which he has batted after Alexi, Mauer has batted .375 (1.027 OPS), with 2 home runs and 9 runs batted in. The current lineup has been relatively effective simply because of its structure. Gomez could definitely improve upon his .304 OBP, but he does bring speed. After him come Casilla and Mauer, with the second-best and best OBPs on the team, with .400 and .415, respectively. Casilla finally gives Mauer someone to drive in. Morneau then follows him as the RBI leader. At least on paper, it looks like they should find their stride soon.
The rest of the order needs to step up, however. Here are the Twins' batting averages by order position. Unfortunately, like most years, numbers seven through nine have struggled, batting just .256 (.669 OPS). The players at those positions will likely continue to rotate (except for Young, and I don't want to get into that headache again), so it's unlikely that they will hit their stride any time soon.
For awhile I am going to try wrapping up posts with a link to the rundown of the Twins batters' success against the upcoming starter. Tell me if you like it. It's something that most people don't see, and if you memorize a couple of the lines, you can be a true fan by blowing the minds of your friends with your statistical knowledge and criticizing Gardy when Mike Redmond doesn't get to bat.
Saturday in Chicago:
Livan Hernandez v. Mark Beuhrle
Now of course, I can't expect Gardy to have someone waiting on Baseball-Reference to cross-check every one of his decisions, and I shouldn't expect him to abandon all of his managerial intuition in favor of statistics. So I won't even include that his worst ERA comes after two days of rest, like last night, or that batters hit .324 (.843 OPS) when he enters in the 5th inning, like last night. I won't even mention that batters hit his first pitch at a .314 pace (.786 OPS), and that Blackburn had been getting his first jacked all night, so he shouldn't make it hittable. But together, all of this lead to his first offering to Quentin being knocked out of the park to add three more runs, and I think that even a casual fan could have seen it coming.
Rincon was already struggling, and it was obvious. Everyone would like to see him work out of it. But bringing him in last night was not the way to do it. The pitcher to replace Blackburn should be one that can "stop the bleeding". Bringing in Guerrier, Crain, Bass or Boof might have provided the stitches. Bringing in Rincon just widened the wound.
. . .
I have been complaining for most of the season that Mauer should be batting second in the order. But Casilla has held down the second spot for a couple of weeks now, and is looking very good there. Mauer hardly struggled with other players batting in front of him, but he has been especially effective when following the second baseman. In the past sixteen games in which he has batted after Alexi, Mauer has batted .375 (1.027 OPS), with 2 home runs and 9 runs batted in. The current lineup has been relatively effective simply because of its structure. Gomez could definitely improve upon his .304 OBP, but he does bring speed. After him come Casilla and Mauer, with the second-best and best OBPs on the team, with .400 and .415, respectively. Casilla finally gives Mauer someone to drive in. Morneau then follows him as the RBI leader. At least on paper, it looks like they should find their stride soon.
The rest of the order needs to step up, however. Here are the Twins' batting averages by order position. Unfortunately, like most years, numbers seven through nine have struggled, batting just .256 (.669 OPS). The players at those positions will likely continue to rotate (except for Young, and I don't want to get into that headache again), so it's unlikely that they will hit their stride any time soon.
For awhile I am going to try wrapping up posts with a link to the rundown of the Twins batters' success against the upcoming starter. Tell me if you like it. It's something that most people don't see, and if you memorize a couple of the lines, you can be a true fan by blowing the minds of your friends with your statistical knowledge and criticizing Gardy when Mike Redmond doesn't get to bat.
Saturday in Chicago:
Livan Hernandez v. Mark Beuhrle
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Give Him His Juice Back
Earlier in the season I ripped on the Crain Train for consistently getting worse each year. But he's been playing well lately, and someone else has filled his shoes as the bullpen choke-artist.
It's Juan Rincon. This year, right-handed batters have hit just .204 (.606 OPS) against him, but lefties bat .333 (.905 OPS). He has a 3.68 ERA at home, but 6.30 on the road. With runners in scoring position, batters average .400 (1.023 OPS). This gets worse when the runners have two outs (which should be easier?). Batters move up to .444 (1.060 OPS). It's a small sample, but you can look at it this way: in 13 plate appearances with 2 outs, RISP, Rincon has given up 7 runs. Here's a direct link to his "Clutch Stats". Even if you don't normally click on links, I suggest you check out this one. Apparently, he should only be used in the Dome as a right-handed specialist when the Twins lead by more than four runs.
Or, in other words, he should not be used. The Twins will likely be going to a 13-man pitching staff when Scott Baker is activated. Matt Macri will likely be the man that goes down. That leaves five players for four infield positions. Doesn't that stretch the bench a little too far? Sure, each of the ten non-catchers can play multiple positions, and Cuddyer can play all of them. But it seems a little ridiculous to take away an offensive option to carry an 8-man bullpen. Why so many? Let's go through it.
Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow are the only southpaws. Breslow is off to a decent start, so it appears that both should stay. Guerrier and Crain seem to be splitting what used to be Neshek time, but have been expanding into losing situations as well. They are currently the "bread and butter". Joe Nathan is essentially closer-only (that's a headache in and of itself). Boof will stay because he won't pass through waivers. The Twins expect him to be able to work well as a reliever because he can use his "power" in one inning instead of seven (although, isn't it usually the first inning when he has problems?). There's no use arguing. He will likely steal many of the innings that Bass would have gotten.
That's seven. The eighth is Rincon. So it looks like it's Bass or Rincon that should go. Bass has a 5.35 ERA. Maybe he could use a little time to regroup in the minors, but take away his 7 ER, 1 1/3 inning blunder against Detroit (a game that was bad for everybody), and he has a competitive 3.71 ERA. That would give Rincon the worst average of the relief staff, 4.74. Bass can be a second non-relief option; Rincon definitely can't. Over his career in appearances with more than 50 pitches (11 times), batters average .341 (1.097 OPS).
Since the blown lead against Detroit in mid-April, Crain has quietly produced a very respectable 2.29 ERA. In that same span, Rincon has produced a 4.35 average. He is now my least-favorite reliever. Yes, I flip-flopped. Because I can. Clearly Rincon does not fit into the bullpen equation. To move him down, he would have to clear waivers, and he most likely wouldn't. I remember Juan's good days with the Twins, but they have passed. So it's time to let him go*. Maybe a new team can give him his juice back.**
*...with his red Metrodome sign. "Crain Train" is actually kind of clever. "Lamb's Flock" almost is too. But "Rincon's Kids", posted below a family-friendly GA section? I'm sure women adore him, but there's no way he's been that careless. I definitely don't condone that kind of promiscuity. If he stays, could we just change it to "Travis Henry's Kids"?
**His power. What did you think I meant? I definitely don't condone substance abuse.
It's Juan Rincon. This year, right-handed batters have hit just .204 (.606 OPS) against him, but lefties bat .333 (.905 OPS). He has a 3.68 ERA at home, but 6.30 on the road. With runners in scoring position, batters average .400 (1.023 OPS). This gets worse when the runners have two outs (which should be easier?). Batters move up to .444 (1.060 OPS). It's a small sample, but you can look at it this way: in 13 plate appearances with 2 outs, RISP, Rincon has given up 7 runs. Here's a direct link to his "Clutch Stats". Even if you don't normally click on links, I suggest you check out this one. Apparently, he should only be used in the Dome as a right-handed specialist when the Twins lead by more than four runs.
Or, in other words, he should not be used. The Twins will likely be going to a 13-man pitching staff when Scott Baker is activated. Matt Macri will likely be the man that goes down. That leaves five players for four infield positions. Doesn't that stretch the bench a little too far? Sure, each of the ten non-catchers can play multiple positions, and Cuddyer can play all of them. But it seems a little ridiculous to take away an offensive option to carry an 8-man bullpen. Why so many? Let's go through it.
Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow are the only southpaws. Breslow is off to a decent start, so it appears that both should stay. Guerrier and Crain seem to be splitting what used to be Neshek time, but have been expanding into losing situations as well. They are currently the "bread and butter". Joe Nathan is essentially closer-only (that's a headache in and of itself). Boof will stay because he won't pass through waivers. The Twins expect him to be able to work well as a reliever because he can use his "power" in one inning instead of seven (although, isn't it usually the first inning when he has problems?). There's no use arguing. He will likely steal many of the innings that Bass would have gotten.
That's seven. The eighth is Rincon. So it looks like it's Bass or Rincon that should go. Bass has a 5.35 ERA. Maybe he could use a little time to regroup in the minors, but take away his 7 ER, 1 1/3 inning blunder against Detroit (a game that was bad for everybody), and he has a competitive 3.71 ERA. That would give Rincon the worst average of the relief staff, 4.74. Bass can be a second non-relief option; Rincon definitely can't. Over his career in appearances with more than 50 pitches (11 times), batters average .341 (1.097 OPS).
Since the blown lead against Detroit in mid-April, Crain has quietly produced a very respectable 2.29 ERA. In that same span, Rincon has produced a 4.35 average. He is now my least-favorite reliever. Yes, I flip-flopped. Because I can. Clearly Rincon does not fit into the bullpen equation. To move him down, he would have to clear waivers, and he most likely wouldn't. I remember Juan's good days with the Twins, but they have passed. So it's time to let him go*. Maybe a new team can give him his juice back.**
*...with his red Metrodome sign. "Crain Train" is actually kind of clever. "Lamb's Flock" almost is too. But "Rincon's Kids", posted below a family-friendly GA section? I'm sure women adore him, but there's no way he's been that careless. I definitely don't condone that kind of promiscuity. If he stays, could we just change it to "Travis Henry's Kids"?
**His power. What did you think I meant? I definitely don't condone substance abuse.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Is Alexi a Girl's Name?
Since the beginning of the Kansas City series, Casilla has batted .393 (.919 OPS). Last season, most fans probably remember him for his poor attempts at swinging the bat and his shaky defense. But despite the small, hourglass-shaped black animal clinging to his lower lip, Casilla has looked great so far this year. It's hard to say if anyone could really have seen it coming.
Casilla played on three different minor league teams with the Anaheim Angels in 2004, batting .270 (.694 OPS). He then played at A, AA, and AAA with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2005, averaging .311 (.761 OPS). The Twins then aquired him for pitcher J.C. Romero, and in 2006, he improved again, batting .318 (.783 OPS).
But, for whatever reason, he declined in 2007 to .269 (.689 OPS) and to .219 (.600 OPS) in 2008 with the Red Wings. Maybe it was the first time he saw that a spot might not be waiting for him in the majors, or maybe it was the first time he saw AAA pitching. Maybe it was his discipline, or the criticism he received for his fielding. When he came up last year, Casilla showed that there was no reason for him to stay, batting just .222 (.515 OPS). But, for whatever reason, his outlook changed again this year. After hitting a hot streak in early May, Casilla was called up again. This time he took advantage. He is batting .328 (.880 OPS), has 8 walks (already tieing him with Gomez), and has 14 RBIs in just 17 games. His defense has also improved dramatically. It's hard to know what sparked the change and its impossible to know if his success will continue, but he and Gomez have worked well together at the top of the lineup. If he continues to swing well and turn those double plays, I say he deserves and upgrade to "Alex".
Romero, by the way, never seemed to stand out for the Twins. His best ERA came in 2002 (1.89), but it was sandwiched between two averages over 5. He played just one year for the Angels in 2006 with a 6.70 ERA, and became a free agent at the end of the season. He was signed by the Red Sox in December, but was released in mid-June after a 3.15 ERA. Three days later, however, he signed with the Phillies, and put up a 1.24 ERA over 36 1/3 relief innings. This year he is off to another good start; 1.33 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. He's thrown to 22 different catchers in his career, but it looks like he's finally found a comfortable home in the National League. The Angels clearly drew the short straw in the Casilla deal, but the Phillies are obiously enjoying Romero's unexpected success. Just another example of why baseball is a crazy game.
Casilla played on three different minor league teams with the Anaheim Angels in 2004, batting .270 (.694 OPS). He then played at A, AA, and AAA with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in 2005, averaging .311 (.761 OPS). The Twins then aquired him for pitcher J.C. Romero, and in 2006, he improved again, batting .318 (.783 OPS).
But, for whatever reason, he declined in 2007 to .269 (.689 OPS) and to .219 (.600 OPS) in 2008 with the Red Wings. Maybe it was the first time he saw that a spot might not be waiting for him in the majors, or maybe it was the first time he saw AAA pitching. Maybe it was his discipline, or the criticism he received for his fielding. When he came up last year, Casilla showed that there was no reason for him to stay, batting just .222 (.515 OPS). But, for whatever reason, his outlook changed again this year. After hitting a hot streak in early May, Casilla was called up again. This time he took advantage. He is batting .328 (.880 OPS), has 8 walks (already tieing him with Gomez), and has 14 RBIs in just 17 games. His defense has also improved dramatically. It's hard to know what sparked the change and its impossible to know if his success will continue, but he and Gomez have worked well together at the top of the lineup. If he continues to swing well and turn those double plays, I say he deserves and upgrade to "Alex".
. . .
Romero, by the way, never seemed to stand out for the Twins. His best ERA came in 2002 (1.89), but it was sandwiched between two averages over 5. He played just one year for the Angels in 2006 with a 6.70 ERA, and became a free agent at the end of the season. He was signed by the Red Sox in December, but was released in mid-June after a 3.15 ERA. Three days later, however, he signed with the Phillies, and put up a 1.24 ERA over 36 1/3 relief innings. This year he is off to another good start; 1.33 ERA in 20 1/3 innings. He's thrown to 22 different catchers in his career, but it looks like he's finally found a comfortable home in the National League. The Angels clearly drew the short straw in the Casilla deal, but the Phillies are obiously enjoying Romero's unexpected success. Just another example of why baseball is a crazy game.
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